Ai Predicts Tokyo Coronavirus Numbers Could Top Seventh Wave
Researchers using artificial intelligence technology have predicted that in mid-January the number of coronavirus infections in Tokyo could surpass the number recorded at the peak of the seventh wave.
A team from the Nagoya Institute of Technology, led by Professor Hirata Akimasa, used AI to simulate what could happen in the weeks ahead, if cases involving new strains, such as the BQ.1 Omicron subvariant, increase.
The team used infection numbers recorded through November 10, vaccine efficacy rates, people's movements and other data.
The AI technology predicted there will be a full-scale surge in infections through next week.
Based on a scenario in which the BQ.1 and other strains are 1.2 times transmissible than the BA.5 subvariant, and those who have been previously infected have no immunity, the weekly average of daily cases would be about 30,000 in mid-December.
By mid-January, that figure would be about 36,000. That number would be higher than the one recorded at the peak of the seventh wave.
Deaths from the coronavirus in Tokyo could exceed 20 a day between mid-January and early February.
On the other hand, if the BQ.1 and other variants have the same transmissibility levels as previous strains, and vaccines work against them to some extent, the peak figure would be about 25,000 in mid-January.
Hirata says characteristics of the BQ.1 subvariant are not well known yet, so he advised people to continue to wear masks, ventilate rooms, and take other basic anti-infection measures.
He also urged people to get vaccinated now, before infections surge.