Experts Estimate Infection May Rise Amid Olympics
A group of experts says that if the coronavirus state of emergency is lifted in Tokyo as planned, the number of new cases may again rise to the level of emergency during the Olympics.
The prediction was made by Kyoto University Associate Professor Furuse Yuki and researchers from Tohoku University and the National Institute of Infectious Diseases.
The group reported its analysis at an experts' meeting of the health ministry on Wednesday.
They estimated how daily case numbers may change if the state of emergency in Tokyo ends as planned on Sunday and the effects of the Delta variant, which was first confirmed in India, are relatively small.
Their estimate shows that if the number of people leaving their homes rises 10 percent after the emergency is lifted, daily new cases in the first half of August will exceed 1,000 -- the level of a state of emergency.
The estimate does not include turnout during the Olympics.
They said if the number of people going out increases further by 5 percentage points during the Olympics, new cases will top 1,000 at the start of August.
They also estimated that if the Delta variant has no impact, daily cases will stay below 1,000, as long as the rise in people's outings is kept below 15 percent.
After the meeting, Wakita Takaji, the head of the health ministry's panel, said it is important to see how much people's outings increase and to monitor the impact of variants.
He said vaccination is expected to reduce the number of seriously ill people, but unlikely to immediately curb the spread of infection. He added that it is necessary to take measures to suppress the flow of people and prevent the spread of variants.